I am an economist, an economist who believes that the future economy will be an economy of quality. Furthermore, I believe it will be mainly through the study of the arts that the economics profession will begin to understand the nature and impact of quality in the emerging economy. Fundamental changes are altering the contemporary economy. Some are readily apparent, for example, ‘High Tech’ and low wage ‘off-shore’ production in Third World countries. But beneath the glittering surface of new technology and the ‘de-industrialisation’ of First World countries, there are profound demographic changes which are shaping what I call the ‘Post-Modern Economy’.

I use the term ‘Post-Modern’ in preference to the more usual ‘post-industrial’ for two reasons. First, industrial production, in the opinion of most observers, will continue to play a significant role in future economic growth and development. Accordingly, ‘post-industrial’ is simplistic and an inappropriate label to describe the emerging economic reality. Second, at present no school of economic thought enjoys widespread public confidence. The success of the world economy from the Second World War through the early 1970s led most economists and politicians to accept the Keynsian creed that government intervention was the ultimate guarantor of growth and development. By the mid-1970s, however, stagfiation, recession, the oil crisis, and growth of public sector debt created a crisis of confidence, a crisis predicted by Keynes himself (Shackle, 1967, 129).

Today various economic theories and dogma compete for attention and acceptance. To an extent, the 1980s are a time of ‘cultural counter-reformation’, a period in which many are trying to resuscitate traditional values and beliefs swept away by the turbulent ‘cultural revolution’ of the 1960s, and the economic crisis of the 1970s.

In fact, popular confidence in economic theory has been shattered, a situation similar to that in contemporary architecture in which the certainties of the ‘modern’ or international style have been replaced by an eclecticism of style and design known as ‘Post-Modern Architecture’. By analogy, I believe we have entered the era of Post-Modern Economics, an era without a generally accepted dogma, an era in which we must begin a long trek for economic truth and understanding, and public confidence.

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In this paper I outline, with special reference to Canada, the fundamental demographic changes transforming the economy, and I will demonstrate the relationship of these changes to increasing participation in the arts. Second, I will show how consumption for all goods and services is changing in response to the shifting population profile. Finally, I will illustrate ways in which education through art can enhance production skills required in a Post-Modern Economy. Before proceeding, however, let me define what I mean by the arts. In my opinion, there are three distinct segments of contemporary art, namely the fine arts, the commercial arts, and the amateur arts. In each, the creative source is the individual artist. The fine arts are a professional activity which serves ‘art for art’s sake’ just as ‘knowledge for knowledge’s sake’ is the rationale for ‘pure research’ in the sciences (Chartrand, 1980). The commercial arts are a profit-making activity which places profit before excellence. The amateur arts are a ‘recreational’ activity that serves to re-create the ability of a worker to do his or her job, or a ‘leisure’ activity that serves to ‘self-actualise’ a citizen’s creative potential, and thereby permits him or her to more fully appreciate life.

Each art activity is intimately interrelated. The amateur arts, in actualising the talents and abilities of the individual citizen, provide an educated audience and initial training for the fine and the commercial arts. The fine arts, in the pursuit of artistic excellence as an end in and of itself, provide research and development for the commercial arts. The commercial arts, in the pursuit of profit, provide the means to market and distribute the best of the amateur and the fine arts to an audience large enough and in a form suited to earn a profit. Collectively, these three make up the arts industry including advertising, broadcasting, motion pictures, the performing and visual arts, publishing, sound, and video recording. Compared with manufacturing industries, the Canadian arts industry in 1982 was the largest with full-time employment of more than 234,280; the 6th largest with salaries and wages of $2.8 billion; and the 9th largest with revenue of $8.5 billion or 2.5% of Gross National Product (Research & Evaluation, August 1985).

The demographic revolution

Research conducted around the world has identified three fundamental demographic changes that are transforming the economy, and which are contributing to an enormous growth in the arts audience. These changes are rising levels of education, increasing participation of women, and ageing of the population (McCaughey, 1984).

Rising levels of education

The average level of education has risen dramatically in the last generation. In 1961, approximately 11% of adult Canadians had some post-secondary education compared with almost one-third in 1985. By the end of this century, it is projected to be almost 40%.

Within the labour force, i.e., taxpayers, the average level of education is forecast to grow even faster. Between 1977 and the year 2000, members of the labour force with at least some post-secondary education will double from 3.4 million, or 32% of the labour force, to 6.7 million, or 45% of the Canadian labour force (Research & Evaluation, August 1985, 2).

Studies conducted around the world, and across Canada, indicate that the fine arts audience is characterised by high levels of education (McCaughey, 1984). A proxy for the size of the fine arts audience is the number of adult Canadians who have at least some post-secondary education. Accordingly, the fine arts audience no longer constitutes a small statistical ‘elite’. Rather it represents a significant plurality of the adult population at present, and by the year 2000 it will represent almost half of all taxpayers, taxpayers who are the most socially active, politically aware, and economically powerful members of society.

The impact of rising levels of education can also be seen in the growth rate in participation in alternative leisure time activities. Between 1977 and 1985 the adult population grew at an average annual rate of 1.6%. Participation in arts-related activities grew significantly faster, in fact significantly faster than all other leisure-time activities. Attendance at museums and art galleries grew at an average annual rate of 2.6%; use of libraries at 2.4%; and attendance at live theatre at an average annual rate of 2.1%. On the other hand, attendance at sports events increased at an average annual rate of 1.3%, and television viewing at 1.4% (Research & Evaluation, August 1985, 3). Through to the year 2000, growth in arts participation will continue to exceed growth in both the adult population, and alternative leisure activities.

Increasing participation of women

The second significant demographic trend during the last generation has been the entry of women into the economic and political life of the community. This has had a dramatic impact on family structure and employment patterns. In 1971, one household in three was the traditional one in which the wife stayed home with the children; by 1981 only one household in five fitted this description. It is expected that the 1986 Census will have shown a further substantial decline. By 1985, more than 70% of Canadians were employed in the service sector. This represented a 31% increase in service jobs in a decade. There was virtually no employment growth in manufacturing during the same period. The growth in service sector employment contributed to the increasing participation of women in the work force, which rose from 42% in 1973 to 54% in 1985 and is forecast to reach 57% by 1995 (Anderson, 1986, B2).

Women in North America have traditionally been considered the carriers or guardians of culture. In fact, next to level of education, sex is the best demographic indicator of arts participation in North America. Women tend to be more exposed to, and

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involved in, arts and creative activity in childhood than men, thus forming an adult taste for the arts. In North America, women generally make up 60% of the audience. This sex bias, however, is not apparent in Europe where the arts audience is roughly 50% male and 50% female (McCaughey, 1984, 4). Another indication of the important role of women in the arts can be seen through three comparisons of women’s employment in the labour force as a whole and in arts-related employment. First, according to the 1981 Canadian Census, women represented 40% of the labour force but almost 50% of the arts industry labour force. Second, 48% of all women in the labour force had some post-secondary education compared with 65% of women employed in the arts industry. Third, only 1% of women in the labour force had a Master’s Degree, while 11% of women with Masters’ degrees were employed in the arts industry. In fact, no sector is as dominated by women as the arts industry. No car company or major manufacturing firm, to my knowledge, has been founded by a woman. But many ballet and theatre companies, galleries and music festivals have been founded by women.

Accordingly, the domed sports stadiums being built around the country today appeal to a part of the population which, at least in relative terms, is of declining political and economic importance, i.e., young males. It is opera houses, galleries, and other cultural facilities which should form the basis of the political ‘edifice complex’ if politicians wish to appeal to the increasingly important women’s constituency. The increasing role of women in the economy and politics will, I believe, in and of itself, lead to increasing political and economic recognition of arts and culture.

Ageing of the population

It is widely known that the demographic structure of Western countries is being fundamentally altered by the ageing of the ‘baby boom’ generation. In fact, by 1996, nearly 8 million Canadians will be over 50 years of age, and this age bracket will represent 28% of the population, up from 22% in 1976. The over-65 age group will account for 13% of Canadians in 1996 compared to 9% in 1976. There will also be a 7% decline in the number of people under 35 (Anderson, June 19, 1986, B2).

It is not generally recognised, however, that after education and sex, age is the best demographic indicator of participation in most arts-related activities. The older one grows the more likely one is to participate in arts-related activities, at least up to retirement age (McCaughey, 1984, 6). If compulsory retirement at age 65 is abolished and the work week continues to decline, then older members of our society will have even more time and financial means to participate in arts-related activities. This trend will, of course, be reinforced as the highly educated baby-boom generation of the 1950s and 1960s becomes the ‘geriatric boom’ after the year 2000.

In summary, three fundamental changes in the profile of the

population - increasing levels of education, increasing participation of women, and ageing of the population - are all contributing to a change in the nature and pattern of the economy, including a rapid increase in participation in arts-related activities.

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